30 Second Story: Wind power is pretty good. Building it on land is good, but you have to worry about certain birds, landowners and NIMBY's etc. Good thing the oceans generally aren't privately owned. Canada doesn't have any offshore wind in April 2022 as best I know (honestly, I'm going into this post more blind than I ever have before). Will we?
Will Canada Build and Operate an Offshore Wind Farm by 2024?
January 1, 2024
Prior: 30%
Explanation: I know there's at least one project in the works, but when I looked at that for a friend I remember only giving it a 10% chance by the end of this year (2022). Big projects are slow, and one extra year only seems so useful when you factor in the chance that it never happens at all.
Updates:
Winding up:
How useful would offshore wind would be in Canada. A cursory glance gives lots of reasons why offshore wind would be less useful in Canada than in Europe, and my prior was based on the idea that Canada wanted to build offshore wind and it was an easy technology that would be easy to port over. This isn't true, because we have less of a coastal population, and less expensive land.
New Value: 20%
Getting a Lay off the Land.
Here's a quote from the Canada Energy Regulator Website:
No offshore wind farms exist in Canada, but projects totaling more than 3.6 GW have been proposed. The 400 MW NaiKun Project in Hecate Strait, B.C. is the only West Coast proposal. Five projects totaling more than 3 200 MW, are planned by Beothuk Energy for Atlantic Canada: two off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, and one each off the shores of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick.
I'm going to update very slightly because I didn't think there were this many projects in the works, and the variety of options on the East Coast diversifies the portfolio, so to speak.
New Value: 25%
Project 1: NaiKun.
One-by-one time. I had heard about the project in BC, and discussed it with my friend during his 2022 predictions. However, their own website says that construction won't start for two years after a power purchase agreement, and they were still fighting for that less than a year ago. Overall my impression is to be very pessimistic on this project in a two year timeline. I usually don't go lower than 10% on casual yearly predictions, but this project has been floundering for a few decades. If you disagree with me, you're uniquely able to make a profit off that opinion here.
Although they've done a deal with Northland Power on this project, and NP's price seems to have gotten a big Ukraine war boost (sorry, I'm getting distracted).
I also think BC has plenty of clean energy with Hydro, and hate building anything that might change the environment right now. I can't update too far down yet because I haven't looked East at all yet.
New Value: 20%
Project 2: Beothuk.
As stated previously, Beothuk is actually multiple projects being aspired to across Atlantic Canada. Spoiler alert: I hate all of it.
I don't even think this is still a thing! There website is dead, they've taken down their social media. All of the press is from 2017 or earlier. They claim they're eyeing construction starts in 2019, but that didn't happen. Also, Newfoundland has way more hydro than I thought. They're talking about building transmission to the US. Do you know what I trust less than offshore wind timelines? Transmission timelines.
New Value: 5%
North American Timelines:
I remember when I glanced at this earlier for my friend that the UK construction times were really impressive. A lot of progress has been made in this field, but pegging this prediction to January 1st 2024 still seems laughable. The US just approved their first wind farm last year, with operation expected during 2024. Canada hasn't approved anything yet and no one seems to be seeking it that enthusiastically right now. Offshore in the great lakes seems to have been properly killed a decade ago. Again, I'm very pessimistic on this one.
New Value: 2%
Final Value: 2%
https://manifold.markets/JasperWoodard/will-canada-build-and-operate-an-of
I have to admit, I think I chose the wrong year for this one. I'd be surprised if anyone is interested enough to bet Yes even on those odds. Then again, I'm glad to have learned what I did.
Other Predictions:
The better question just adds time to the end date. I'm trying to avoid long predictions, but that's certainly more useful.
Offshore wind by end 2025: 10%
Offshore wind by end of 2030: 50%
The technology really is getting much better. These projects don't need a 20 year ramp anymore.
Picture: Jeju Island, Korea
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