Note: Meta-discussion in post-script
30 Second Story: Lithium is needed for numerous green technologies, most notably lithium ion batteries. More than half of known lithium reserves are estimated to be in the countries of Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina, but as of 2019, Australia produced almost twice as much as the other three countries combined, despite smaller reserves. This question is posed on the prediction site Metaculus, and more information can be found under the description.
Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?
December 31, 2030
Prior: 51%
Explanation: There's a real market. It's hard enough to beat the market, better not try to do it on pure intuition.
Updates:
The Passage of Time:
The best way to update this would be to update the statistics from the original description, written at the end of 2020. Unfortunately, here's where the realities of this blog come in, because the prediction resolves based on data from Statista, but I'm not paying ~$40 a year for the subscription until I need it for more than one Sunday blog, and I can't find 2021 numbers anywhere else.
New Value: 51%
Trendlines and Trendlines:
I was impressed by some quick maths on the Wiki for Lithium Mining in Australia. In the last decade, Australia expanded much faster than any other country, before slowing down as lithium prices receded. See also this chart (Bolivia is missing because it's at a ridiculously low level). The relevant trendline seems to be declining production in Australia, while the Southern Triangle countries are holding steady.
New Value: 60%
Lithium Prices:
Something is happening to the world's lightest metal:
From: TradingEconomics.com
This graph roughly charts the slow draw back in lithium production from already established large Australian mines. I expect Australia to easily regain it's high of production around 51,000 megatonnes (c.f. ~41000 last available figures), and to want to expand capacity even further. Obviously this will also encourage Argentina and Chile (I honestly think Bolivia will take more than 10 years to make a difference), but I think there's less untapped resources already under rights. I also think higher prices will have a larger net effect with a more expensive workforce (as in Australia)
New Value: 45%
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics of the Russia variety are probably already factored into the price of lithium. Countries will try to push EVs harder (along with other technologies), chip shortages will start to ease, and lithium will become pricier. But again, that's already factored in. I'm referring more to the decided left-wing shift in Latin America. The Metaculus question refers to Bolivia having a more pro-mining government, but unless I'm mistaken that's already old news after the maybe a coup situation ended with a new election. Now ideally, Chile's Boric and Argentina's Fernandez can offer there citizens both legal abortions AND jobs in the new green economy, and I'm sure they will speak to that point. But opening a new lithium mine involves building roads, tearing up the ground, and making a few foreign nationals quite rich, and leftists just aren't going to do that as well or as quickly as Australia (or China, or even Canada or the US).
New Value: 35%
Final Value: 35%
Final reflections:
Starting a new writing practice always involves reflecting on how much time it takes. In this case, I'm realizing the answer is too much time. For now I'm going to cut back on editing and won't include progress checks (I imagine the progress checks here will be pretty straightforward including growth rates and percentages for each country every year). And I may move to biweekly posts if it comes to that.
Fairmont Mountain, British Columbia. This is my friend, whose photo of me was taken on a very low resolution phone, and I'm never going to get this photo again because we took the wrong way down and just below us is a very sketchy choke point.