About
The Premise
Plan A: Know the future. The one true oracle Gora meets me on the mountain top and tells me next weeks lottery numbers.
"Great, I will buy a ticket" I say, and I leave a happy man.
Plan B: Know the odds. The talented oracle Gora meets me by the park bench and tells me the odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 14 million.
"Great, I will not buy a ticket" I say, and I leave a happy man.
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Plan C: Know the markets. The second oracle Gora, twice removed, likes to bet on basketball games. Sometimes she wins, sometimes she loses, but if the odds are ever really bad, she'll swoop in with a lot of money for a high expeceted ROI. She tells me the bookies are predicting a 35% chance of a Raptors win this weekend.
"Great, I will bet against my buddy at even odds" I say, and I leave a happy man.
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Plan D: Trust the experts. The grocer bagging my potatoes (the nametag says O. Gora) tells me that the government is going to ban babies by next month and seize the means of reproduction. When asked for her confidence, she just says "very sure", but it I press a lot harder she puts it at 95%. "A little worrying," I say, and go home to make supper.
But she's there the next weekend, and I get more predictions out of her. By forcing her to use real numbers, she slowly lowers her predictions of government dystopias, but I still can't trust her on issues like this. But she's actually really good at predicting when the supermarket will be busy, and I start coming earlier. Her predictions get more sophisticated with practice. She tells me that there's an 80% chance the truckers will go on strike after the vote next Tuesday.
"Thanks Gora," I say. I go grab another can of tomatoes.
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This blog is Plan D.
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