Back again after a break. Can you believe writing a thesis is time consuming?
30 Second Story: Sila Nanotechnologies became (to my knowledge) the first company to commercialize silicon anodes with the Whoop 4.0 performance watch. They're extremely gung-ho about the future of silicon batteries, and they just announced that they will build a huge factory in Washington state to produce their batteries. I'm torn on whether to predict company success or "silicon anode success". But honestly in the timescales I want to predict they might be the same thing.
Will an electric vehicle containing a Sila Nanotechnologies >10% silicon anode be commercially available by the end of 2025?
December 31, 2025
Prior: 20%
Explanation: They say that full production will be up and running by the first half of 2025, and you definitely don't need all that manufacturing capacity to make Whoop straps. Most of their marketing makes it clear that this manufacturing capacity is at least largely geared towards supplying the EV market.
But... EV's are a far more difficult market for silicon anodes. Performance watches are supposed to last a really long time on a single charge (e.g. you can't charge it while you're sleeping, because you want body metrics, or you can't charge it over a 4 day ultra-marathon). People will pay a premium for such a performance watch, but still won't expect it to perform all that well in 10 years. Cars are the opposite. Price and lifetime are king.
Updates
SilaWhite:
Sila produced a white paper in September 2020. My key takeaways:
• Very interesting predictions for lithium ion battery performance metrics by 2030. Good for future prediction markets, as unsurprisingly, most of the world is still not ready to temper genius with probability.
• They think that current automotive battery manufactures will basically be unbeatable if those companies adopt new technology quickly. If Sila ever wants to supply EV batteries, they clearly feel a time crunch.
• It confirmed my priors all over the place. They were very pessimistic about the technologies that I'm pessimistic about. They agree that consumer electronics will be easier to get a foothold in than EVs. I love having my priors confirmed, so let's start there before moving on.
New Value: 20%
My Dance Card's Full:
I had neglected to consider that car brands without a plan for an EV world may just go under in the next few decades if they don't start early. Sila is clearly using the ideas of their white paper as promotional material to entice a car brand without a plan of creating an EV version to side with their "next generation" ready to go batteries. They have two years to find a partner, and they just need to convince one.
New Value: 30%
Step by Step:
Tesla EVs right now use about 5% silicon oxide to give their batteries a slight capacity boost. I set the bar at above 10% silicon (and supplied by Sila) in my prediction. That's way less impressive that what they're promising, but also far more achievable, and they agree. I think they'd be willing to alter their recipes a lot if they could woo an automotive deal.
New Value: 33%
Factoring in the Factory:
So far, this has just been high level chemistry, but I thought they were also planning a huge construction project in Washington, and those things don't always finish on time. It really wasn't clear to me that this building already exists, and while I'm sure there's a lot of work to convert it for battery assembly, seeing it on Google Maps ups my estimate.
New Value: 40%
Did I mess up my Timelines:
I'm realizing that even if they produce a million EV batteries at the beginning of 2025, I really don't know if that's enough time to ship them to a car plant, make the EV that doesn't currently exist, and then sell it to a customer in 1 year. The question I had been pondering was "will Sila make a battery for an EV by the end of 2025?" But that's really hard to verify. Either way, I'm cutting my prediction.
New Value|: 25%
There isn't much more to say. I don't think the technology will change that much in ~2 years. I don't think Sila will be the best choice of EV battery out there. The bleak question is "can they convince a car company (even a car brand) without a supplier to try them out before the factory is up and running? I give them a 1/4 chance. (I think the factory can work out either way. Just not for EVs).
Final Prediction: 25%
https://manifold.markets/JasperWoodard/will-an-electric-vehicle-containing
Photo: Invermere, British Columbia