Why I missed COVID-19

Sometimes world events happen that totally blindside me. Even events that develop gradually can take me off guard, especially if it's just not my main area of focus. That said, I feel like I should have seen this becoming a bigger deal, and I'm struck by how majorly I missed it.

The first, most obvious reason is that it's hard to get panicked about things you can't change. It's easy to get depressed about them, but until they're really having a negative impact on your life even that can be difficult. I was hearing news stories out of China and thinking "well, this will be interesting to watch." But I had more pressing things to think about, so I did (you know, back when I had activities in my life and stuff).

The second, smaller reason is that this seemed fundamentally unthreatening, and still does, from a certain standpoint. When I'm listening to podcasts on extinction risks, I'm thinking about bioweapons and virus so virulant and deadly that they can devastate humanity to the point of threatening civilization. This virus might reduce the economy, but it seems fundamentally unfit for taking out our institutions wholesale, and is likely to just evolve into a less deadly form (all the better to survive longer, of course).

That doesn't mean it won't fundamentally change the world, and in a big way. I feel like I've been woken up to that fact, and at the risk of overcompensating, I'm ready to broadcast that fact.