Prediction Review

The KBJ prediction looks dumb in hindsight and was dumb at the time. If I'd said 80% chance of 4 Republican votes, maybe I could let myself off as just wrong, but calling 5 Republican votes is dumb. I was too emotionally disagreeing with bad "0 votes" takes. The big tip-off is that I looked up and found Elena Kagan had only got 6 Republican votes, I was surprised that it was that low, and I though, "meh, I won't change it anyway." That's not how a Bayesian updates.

But in my defense, it's also just a random blog for myself that I spent 10 minutes on at lunch.