Prediction: KBJ

Ketanji Brown Jackson will be confirmed with 55 senate votes or more: 80%

Gut check here, and something I've been feeling for a long time. I haven't even looked at which senators are the likely ones, but my larger feeling is that I think far more Republican senators might vote to approve than most people think, so almost regardless of the prediction, I'll take the over.

People assume that the old habit of confirming the other party's nominations are long gone, but that seems to be primarily a legacy of the last 5 years, in which:

• 2 of the 3 justices appointed involved the potential replacement with a member of a different party (Merrick Garland for Scalia, and Coney-Barrett for RBG). Of course that will be more controversial.

• The 1 justice replacing a member appointed by the same party represented the likely deciding vote on abortion rights.

• That particular judge also had a credible sexual assault allegation.

So yeah, this isn't like those ones. I've long thought that she would be confirmed with lots of Republican votes, and now KBJ also seems extremely competent in her hearing. Elena Kagan got 63 votes, representing 6 Republican votes. So I'm sticking my neck out a bit on this one.